काळेवाडी आघाडी - 3

My Group during this year Study...

Arpit - Aarav - Sanika

What if Osama had been found in India!?

At first the question may sound appalling. A second look may even make such a scenario seem impossible. And yet, the global terror infrastructure, as we understand it today, has not been spreading discreetly- but has been seeping across borders behind veils. What is more, with the accelerated advances in IT and its indiscriminate diffusion across the globe, terror syndicates have become ever more dangerous. They are intelligent, they are stealthy, they are efficient and they are driven by mystical spiritual forces. Their attacks have more often then naught been successful surprises, they have hoodwinked the best of security agencies, they have laid cells in the least expected regions, they have been eluding multinational search operations for years. Given this rapid rise and broad spread of terrorism globally, nothing can be preemptively discarded. In light of all this, one may be forced to give an outside thought to that small yet unsettling question- what if Osama had been found (and killed) in India!?

After the historic declaration was made last week, we witnessed a flurry of activity - discussions, debates, allegations, counter-allegations, clarifications... Several questions were asked of the U.S, several of Afghanistan. And the one nation caught right in the center was Pakistan. That much for the actual events. Now let’s delve slightly into fiction (though, for the above stated reasons, how thin a line divides it from a real possibility is anyone's guess).

Imagine, the US had started that intelligence gathering operation about the possibility of finding a high level target in a compound somewhere in India. In Pakistan's case, as of the facts in hand at the moment, the local intelligence was never informed about the depth of the operation. There is no reason to believe that the US would have supplied the IB with any more intelligence if India had been under the scanner. Indeed, there is every possibility that since there has apparently been very less co-ordination with Indian intelligence agencies than the Pakistani ones (thanks to the Af-Pak strategy), the US would have preferred to keep India totally in the dark. And let us say on May 1, under the particular operation, the Navy SEALs would have killed Osama bin Laden on Indian soil.

The immediate level of world-wide activity that would follow would perhaps make last week's flurry of events look like a tiny ripple! The repercussions of this incredible event would be mammoth. The US would seek the first chance to convince the world of the need to take its security 'assistance' inside India. (For those that believe that the US has been pressing its presence in Iraq and Afghanistan mainly for energy and strategic reasons, the possibility is accentuated by the fact that the entire Indian Ocean-with the largest chunk of world trade- lies at the feet of the sub-continent!) Given the gravity of the situation there might even be a UN pressure for some sort of outside presence in India. And we could be well served not to expect any help from Russia, France or the UK- all of whom have been victims of fundamentalist extremism in the past. For China, it would be an unexpected gift- with its so called competitor caught off balance, its own credibility in terms of its strategic presence in the region strengthened and the geopolitical reality of the Asian region strongly favoring its strong emergence in the near future. For Pakistan, it would be a bonanza! It would literally signal a game change! Its weak arguments of trying to dismantle the inner terror infrastructure would suddenly start carrying water! Its claims to a strategic partnership with the U.S as well as China would suddenly be vindicated! Most importantly, the whole process of India constantly pointing to Pakistan for its terror infrastructure would be reversed and India would be the target for the conveyor belt hacks, perhaps, with a danger of losing out on its long term conflicts with Pakistan!!

While all this seems probable on the external front, the internal front would be nothing better. Of course a committee would be quickly constituted to inquire into the intelligence failure and of course statements would be issued rapidly clarifying our position. But with immense pressure pushing in, the serenity and stockiness of the Indian establishment would not last long. Things would be made worse by our natural tendencies of political finger-pointing and the passionate portrayal of 'how the Indian establishment is more a culprit than is apparent' by sections of the local media!

In a nut-shell, the rapidly rising economic powerhouse vying for a developed status would plunge into politico-strategic depression by just one such significant event!

Fact, they say, is stranger than fiction. In this case, thankfully it is also more soothing. And the factual reality is that India is much more a secure and stable state than its terror affected neighbors. In fact, our establishment is secure enough not to enable terrorist groups find loopholes in it big enough to squeeze in and find a stronghold, again, quite unlike our neighbors. Our intelligence capabilities are too secure to let a sudden intrusion (official or insurgent, overt or covert) go undetected. The fact is, India, with the sheer strength of its politico-strategic and security fundamentals, has the least chance of having to face a situation as is painted above.

Yet, for the sake of the argument of the global spread of terror, it is worthwhile to consider the worst-case scenario, not just for India but for any nation on the globe. For, Osama could then have been found in any part of the world. Stretching our imagination, had he been found in any country in West Asia, a complex flux between the resurgent nations in the area and the extended remnants of the War on Terror would have precipitated in an extremely worrisome manner; had he been found in a country in Africa, the entire geopolitical setup of the continent would have become set to undergo a major change; stretching further, had he been found in Russia (or for that matter, in any member nation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)), extreme traditional frictions would have re-emerged. Given the level at which nations interact today, these conditions would perhaps not emerge immediately- but over a slightly longer span of time, they seem to be the most possible long term repercussions.

Being an event such international significance, it calls for introspection by all nations. When the Fukushima disaster loomed large over Japan, several national magazines came out with cover stories that went “What if this was_ _ _ _ (India/ South Korea/ Pakistan/ Russia...)?”

It is apt that we ask similar questions about our preparedness post the Abbottabad Operation. It would be wise if we sat down to chalk out corrections to whatever shortcomings we have and in whatever remote way they might lead to a terror link-up. The scenario painted in this article was fearsome. Yet that is the very reality in our neighborhood. India needs to take this opportunity to reinforce its strategies and revamp its strategic resources in wake of this unstable neighborhood. Any legislation that relates to extremist operations should be acted on with haste and without political opportunism. Corruption is one vice that will take some time to be dislodged from our offices. Yet, in face of the larger evil of the possibility of terror taking roots in the country, stricter vigilance and co-operation at all levels of financial, defense, civil services needs to be ensured. But then again, this would be a broad based call. Every branch, stream, hierarchical level and office will have to formulate and immediately implement measures in these directions.

For, we live and work in a secure nation- with the knowledge that terrorists will always find it extremely difficult to set camp in India. We need to work to live in an India where that knowledge in itself is perpetually secure.

Text is outcome of discussions among 'Kalewadi Aaghadi' members ...